We first addressed Abortion in our June 17 post IMAGO DEI - What It Means for the Abortion Debate. This post was part of our Imago Dei series which can be found under the tab “In His Image” on our homepage truthpursuit.substack.com.
Many Democrats are claiming that they have found their winning issue: abortion. They claim that the majority of Americans are in favor of abortion rights and that they can ride that sentiment to victory in races at all levels.
But David Leonhardt, who writes the New York Times daily newsletter “The Morning,” says the picture is more complex.
Widespread abortion access is clearly popular, even in many red states. When Americans have voted directly on the issue since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade last year, abortion rights have gone seven for seven. What’s less clear is how much abortion politics affect general elections between a Democrat and a Republican.1
Last year in Ohio, in the US Senate race between JD Vance (R) and Tim Ryan (D) and in the Governor’s race between incumbent Mike DeWine (R) and Nan Whaley (D), both Democrat candidates emphasized their pro-abortion2 stance, contrasting it to their Republican opponents pro-life stance. Both Democrats lost decisively, Whaley losing by 25 points.3 This in a state that a year later (this week) decisively voted to add the right to an abortion to the Ohio State Constitution.
In the 2022 General Elections, ballot measures to expand abortion were approved in California, Michigan and Vermont and Amendments to restrict abortion were defeated in Kentucky and Montana.4 Earlier, in August 2022 in Kansas, the first state to vote on abortion since the Dobbs decision, the right to abortion that existed in the Kansas constitution was left intact.5 With the approval of a constitutional right to abortion in Ohio this week, that is seven (out of seven) states that have voted in favor of abortion.
Leonhardt continues his commentary:
Most Americans support widespread abortion access and will vote for ballot initiatives that protect or establish abortion rights. Yet in an election between two candidates, only a tiny slice of people is likely to vote differently because of any one issue, including abortion.6
Some of us, myself included, have always used a candidate’s position on abortion as a litmus test in casting my vote. It is easy to think that others, both pro-life and pro-abortion, use that same litmus test. But for many, abortion may be one of a handful of issues that determine their vote.
While I disagree with Leonhardt’s characterization that Americans “support widespread abortion access” (they support limited abortion access), I think he is correct in his analysis that abortion, or any other single issue, is a deciding factor for only a small minority of voters.
Americans views on abortion are complex and as a result depend on how the questions are asked. Here are the findings from the July 2023 Gallup poll:78
When given a choice of three options, 34% said abortion should be legal in all circumstances, 51% said in some circumstances and 13% illegal in all circumstances. (2% had no opinion).
When the middle 51% were asked to choose legal in most or legal in some circumstances, they split 13% legal in most and 36% legal in only some circumstances. (3% overall had no opinion).
Looking at trimesters (a division of pregnancy created by the Roe v Wade decision), 69% say abortion should be legal in the first trimester, 37% also in the second trimester and only 22% in the third trimester. Looked at another way, 55% say it should be illegal in the second trimester and 70% say illegal in the third trimester.
So we don’t see a clear “all or nothing” divide. Those who believe that “life begins at conception” (more on this in the next) and should never be terminated are certainly the 13% that oppose all abortion. I would guess that a significant proportion of the 36% that believe abortion should be legal in only some circumstances are “life begins at conception” believers who concede the “rape, incest and life of the mother” exceptions to gain support for their legislation. If so, we have perhaps something over 40% that oppose abortion whenever they can. Not a majority.
Examining the pro-abortion side, 34% believe abortion should be legal in all circumstances. They are likely joined by the 13% who believe that abortion should be legal in most circumstances. Here we have something approaching (but less than) 50% that support abortion whenever they can. Again, not a majority.
This analysis of recent polling confirms the idea that winning on a strict “life begins at conception” is just as unlikely as winning with the “abortion anytime, for any reason” position. Some middle ground position that includes some exceptions, and restrictions only later in pregnancy, is a viable position for a political candidate in a district with constituents holding a range of opinions.
Look for Part 3 of this series coming soon!
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The two sides of the abortion debate call themselves pro-life and pro-choice but long ago the Leftstream media abandoned neutrality and began calling pro-lifers anti-abortion. For the purposes of this article (at least) I will follow their rules and call the pro-choicers by the more accurate label “pro-abortion.”
Same link as Footnote 1
https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/09/politics/abortion-rights-2022-midterms/index.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/02/us/kansas-abortion-rights-vote.html
Same link as Footnote 1
https://news.gallup.com/poll/321143/americans-stand-abortion.aspx
https://news.gallup.com/poll/244097/legality-abortion-2018-demographic-tables.asp These demographic tables from the survey contain a wealth of data by age, income, ethnicity, political party and other demographic factors.